Russian "Proof" Showing Control of Kupiansk Exposed as a Fake
Russian sources released a video showing a soldier walking in a town claiming it was Kupiansk. There was one problem. The video was recorded in Tavilzhanka.
Five days after a defiant Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recorded a video from southwestern Kupiansk, a Russian Telegram channel released a video claiming it was recorded in the eastern part of the city, and Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov once again told autocrat Vladimir Putin that Kupiansk is under complete Russian control. There are two problems. The video was not recorded in Kupiansk, and Ukrainian forces have been geolocated across the city.
Yesterday, the Telegram channel Operational Space released a short video showing a Russian soldier walking on a street, claiming he was in Kupiansk and that the city remained under total Russian control. They even provided an exact location: 49°42’05” North, 37°36’56” East, on Plyazhniy Street in southeastern Kupiansk.
Multiple analysts aligned with Ukraine and Russia tried to verify the claim. It was easy to determine that the video wasn’t recorded on Plyazhniy Street. After hours of searching, the street and buildings shown didn’t match up with any location in Kupiansk.
Geospatial intelligence analyst Bielitz unlocked the mystery. The video was recorded 19 kilometers away in occupied Tavilzhanka, which has been under Russian control since February 2022.
The fake was so poorly executed that even Kremlin-backed milblogger, Rybar, publicly confirmed the actual location where the video was recorded. Their most recent map shows Ukraine has total control of approximately 65% of Kupiansk and is advancing from three directions.
Pro-Russian milblogger Military Informant was more direct. “The only thing that can be said for certain is that the Russian Armed Forces still hold part of central and northern Kupiansk, but most of it is already either in the gray zone or under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. For Zelenskyy, a localized victory in Kupiansk, achieved amid Russia’s premature public declarations of full control of the city, will be a key political argument in negotiations with the U.S. and Europe, just as holding Myrnohrad [near Pokrovsk - Ed.], despite its encirclement, currently is.”
Ukraine’s Localized Offensive Started in October Under a Cloak of Secrecy
The Ukrainian 2nd National Guard Corps “Khartia” released a nearly 4-minute video revealing that elements of the corps had been transferred to the area of operation, and have been conducting a localized offensive in Kupiansk for at least 6 to 8 weeks.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine remained silent about the operation, and local Russian commanders apparently were unwilling to reveal the deteriorating situation.
The first phase of the Ukrainian offensive began north of Kupiansk, clearing the forests near Radkivka and Holubivka, and bringing Russian supply lines into the city under Ukrainian fire control.
The second phase was west of Kupiansk, clearing the villages of Moskovka and Sobolivka, and entering the northwestern and southwestern parts of the city.
The third phase is ongoing, with Ukrainian forces advancing into the city center, including the area of the railroad station. Ukrainian troops cleared the Kupiansk City Council Building on December 4 and, with the support of drones and artillery, have advanced as far north as the Central City Hospital.
Additionally, a Russian-aligned geospatial intelligence analyst who uses the name Creamy Caprice geolocated Ukrainian soldiers near the Kupiansk City District Employment Center building, also in the city center.
Based on the information from Russian and Ukrainian sources, we assess that Russian forces no longer have military control of any part of Kupiansk, with 35% of the northern areas still contested. Small pockets of Russian troops may remain in basements and ruins as far south as the P-07 Highway.
As a practice, our analyst team is skeptical of claims made by both combatants about troops being surrounded. The changes 21st-century warfare has brought to the battlefield have made it extremely difficult to isolate enemy forces and prevent all means of resupply. Heavy-lift drones and uncrewed ground vehicles (UGVs) are increasingly used to maintain enough logistics to sustain small groups.
Kremlin Clings to Kupiansk Claim
Even though the Kremlin’s disinformation campaign fell apart, the Russian Defense Ministry continues to insist that Kupiansk has been captured. On Tuesday, Western Military District spokesperson Leonid Sharov told TASS, “All the districts in Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region are under the Russian army’s control.”
During today’s televised briefing at the Kremlin, Defense Minister Belousov told Putin that Kupiansk is under Russian control. “The ‘West’ force group has captured the strategically important town of Kupiansk,” Belousov said, reading a prepared statement, “which the enemy is unsuccessfully attempting to recapture.”
On October 29, Putin announced that thousands of Ukrainian troops were encircled in Kupiansk and Pokrovsk, and invited Western reporters to visit both cities. Over 450 journalists were contact, with none accepting the offer.
Then, on November 20, Colonel General Sergei Kuzovlev told Putin that Kupiansk had been captured, with no mention of the alleged encircled Ukrainian forces. Putin curtly asked, “Is that it? It is done?” with Kuzovlev assuring him that military operations were over. The next day, a video was published showing Russian troops waving flags at three locations in the city. One of the clips from the eastern part of Kupiansk had been recorded weeks earlier, just as the Ukrainian counteroffensive was starting.
Putin publicly awarded Kuzovlev the Hero of Russia Star on December 9. Three days later, Zelenskyy recorded his video in the city.
Russian Field Commanders Have Few Options
The estimated 60 to 150 Russian soldiers remaining in Kupiansk won’t receive much more support. Russia can’t move armored vehicles into the city because of the Oskil River. If area commanders start to request airstrikes from the Russian Aerospace Forces or artillery support, the lie is exposed not just to the Kremlin but also to the public.
Penal soldiers and other Russian volunteers who are being “zeroed out” could be sent across the Oskil to try and conduct a breakout, while hiding the losses from Moscow. It is very unlikely that enough soldiers will survive passing through Ukrainian defenses to reach the remaining Russian troops still in the city. Russian engineers were unable to establish engineered crossings across the river that splits Kupiansk in half, and drones constantly monitor the area.
Military Informant criticized Russian field commanders for claiming the city had been captured in the first place. “The widespread practice of taking out loans to buy settlements has produced the expected colossal misfire.”
Russian officers are paid bonuses for captured territory and additional money for securing villages and settlements. Russian military bloggers call the practice, capturing a town, “on credit.”
Positioning, Politics, and Optics
It is unclear why the Kremlin refuses to face reality in Kupiansk. In the past, the Defense Ministry has used clever phrases such as “retreated to more advantageous positions” or “conducting a goodwill gesture” when forced to withdraw from an area.
Possibilities include area commanders continuing to share falsified information with their chain of command, convincing Belousov that the city is actually under Russian control. There may be concern about the optics within Russia after Putin publicly awarded General Kuzovlev for heroically “liberating” the city. Additionally, Kremlin diplomats may be concerned, as Military Informant pointed out, that acknowledging Ukraine's battlefield success weakens its position with the Trump administration.
The last point is complex, but in our assessment is unlikely. Russia has engaged in bad-faith negotiations with diplomats from Ukraine, the U.S., the E.U. and E.U. nations, and Türkiye since expanding its war of aggression in 2022. Publicly, Kremlin diplomats may care what the Trump administration thinks, but privately, the talks that began in March are only a delaying tactic. Putin is unwilling to compromise on his short and medium-term goals in Ukraine, which go beyond the Donbas. He also remains completely committed to his maximalist goal of restoring the pre-World War I borders of the Russian Imperial Empire.
What is clear is that Russia will need more time and troops if it wants to really capture Kupiansk, and not just make unsupported claims in headlines and on social media.
Awesome. When Girkin gets to comment on this it will be a fun read. I would pay good money to see Gerasimov’s face when he was shown Zelensky’s selfie….😃
And the beat goes on...Ukraine is winning this war...SLAVA UKRAINI !!!