Ukraine hammers Russian refineries as fuel shortages spread again
A summary of the events that happened on day 1,629 of the Russia-Ukraine War.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR SUMMARY DAY 1,629
The Big Story: Ukraine is hammering Russian refineries again, and fuel shortages are starting to spread
In the Orenburg Oblast, multiple drones struck the Safmar Orsknefteorgsintez Oil Refinery in Orsk, causing two large fires and an emergency flare-off. Residents started panic buying at area filling stations after the attack.
In Khabarovsk Krai, the Rosneft Komsomolsk Oil Refinery in Komsomolsk-on-Amur was hit by two explosions. Located in Russia’s Far East, local officials claim the blast and fire were caused by an industrial accident.
In the Tyumen Oblast, Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s largest petrochemical complex, Sibur’s ZapSibNeftekhim, in Tobolsk. The facility produces approximately half of Russia’s polyethylene and polypropylene. One of the distillation towers suffered a direct hit.
In the Republic of Tatarstan, Ukrainian drones struck the TANECO Oil Refinery in Nizhnekarmsk. Russian officials reported that 13 people were killed in the attack and 78 injured, including a 4-year-old child. It is unclear what a child was doing at the oil refinery.
On Saturday, multiple Ukrainian drones struck the Rosneft Syzran Oil Refinery in the Samara Oblast, causing multiple fires. Ukrainian drones or debris also hit the Ilsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai, injuring five.
Ukraine’s second wave of refinery attacks is causing fuel shortages to rapidly spread in Russia and the occupied territories, just weeks after the situation stabilized.
Daily Assessment
We assess the following:
1. In our assessment, Russia is entering a renewed fuel crisis due to repeat attacks on refineries as they are repaired.
2. Ukraine is on the right path to develop its own anti-ballistic missile system in cooperation with European partners, due to the global shortage of PAC-3 interceptors for the Patriot Air Defense System and the inability of US defense companies to meet existing demand for the next 4 to 6 years.
3. Moscow is setting conditions to expand mobilization and preparing society to further extend its war of aggression, despite denials from Kremlin leaders.
4. The number of Russian and Belarusian violations of NATO nations’ airspace and kinetic acts of hybrid warfare will continue to increase due to the tepid response by Ukraine’s allies.
5. It is extremely unlikely that Russia will capture the remainder of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts by 31 December.
Today’s downloadable Russia-Ukraine War SITREP No. 1,069, for August 7-10, 2026, is 92 pages long and includes our July analysis of territorial control changes, personnel losses, and equipment losses. It also includes our August outlook.
It has been 4,554 days since Russia started the Russia-Ukraine War by invading Crimea and 517 days since Ukraine accepted an unconditional ceasefire.
You can visit our interactive Russia-Ukraine War Map for the latest tactical situation in the theatre of war.
Theaterwide
Ukraine’s Main Defense Intelligence Directorate Deputy Chief, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, said that Russia has reprioritized drone and missile production to focus on the most effective weapons. According to him, Russia has suspended production of the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal and the Kn-32 supersonic anti-ship cruise missile due to low accuracy. The production of Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) and the RM-48U tactical ballistic missile used by the S-400 air defense system has been given a higher priority.
Russia is also increasing production of jet-powered drones such as the Geran-2, Geran-3, Geran-4 Seeker, and Geran-5 hybrid cruise missile. Current production for all Geran and Gerbera drones is now 11,000 per month.
According to sources within the 425th Separate Assault Regiment Skelya, up to 2,000 soldiers have been reassigned to different Ukrainian units. The transfers are occurring allegedly because the regiment is “artificially inflated.”
US defense companies Raytheon and Lockheed Martin have reportedly blocked the licensing of PAC-3 production from Ukraine and other European nations. The companies are allegedly concerned that Kyiv will reverse-engineer the anti-ballistic missile interceptors and build a better and cheaper version.
The day before the US Senate went on summer recess, the body passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026 by an 86-11 vote. The House of Representatives is currently in recess, and won’t take up the measure before 31 August.
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The US State Department authorized a Turkish third-party sale of 70 ATACMS tactical missiles, 12 M270 multiple-launch rocket systems, 2,524 M26 cluster munition rockets for HIMARS, and 47,000 203mm cluster munition artillery rounds to Ukraine.
War Crimes and Human Rights
Russia carried out a major air raid against Zaporizhzhia using UMPK glide bombs, North Korean Kn-23 SRBMs, drones, and hypersonic Zircon tactical anti-ship missiles, killing six and wounding 19.
